数据驱动的目标,以减少全球结核病负担
C R Horsburgh1,2,3, Helen E Jenkins3, L Martinez1
1Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health Boston MA USA.
IJTLD open
|June 18, 2025
概括
为了减少结核病 (TB) 患病率,每年必须至少治愈20%的传染性结核病例. 实现结核病的终结目标需要每年治愈35-40%的流行结核病病例.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病控制和控制传染病
背景情况:
- 了解减少结核病 (TB) 患病率所需的治愈率对于有效的结核病控制策略至关重要.
- 目前减少结核病的目标在感染病例中需要治疗的比例方面还不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 确定需要治愈的传染性结核病例的比例,以实现降低结核病患病率.
- 建立结核病控制目标,与结核病终结目标保持一致.
主要方法:
- 从2000年以来在多个国家进行的基于人口的调查中比较了传染性结核病患病率数据.
- 通过分析随时间的流行的变化,考虑治疗,死亡和自然恢复,估计每年的发病率.
- 评估了结核病治愈比例与观察到的患病率下降之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 每年至少要治愈20%的传染性结核病例,才能观察到患病率的下降.
- 没有一个被研究的国家实现了11%的每年流行率下降,这对于终结结核病目标来说是必要的.
- 在20年内实现90%的结核病流行率降低的终结结核病目标,需要每年治愈35-40%的流行结核病病例.
结论:
- 该研究为结核病治愈率提供了具体目标,以实现90%的患病率降低目标.
- 积极的病例寻找策略对于实现消除结核病所需的高诊断和治愈率至关重要.
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