在管理单位规模上估计被捕种群的丰度
Allison C Keever1, James D Kelly2, Garrett B Clevinger2
1College of Arts and Sciences, Tennessee Technological University, Cookeville, Tennessee, United States of America.
PloS one
|June 18, 2025
概括
一个新的贝叶斯综合种群模型 (IPM) 仅使用收获数据来估计白尾鹿的丰富性. 该方法为有效的野生动物管理和收获监管设置提供了精确的人口估计.
科学领域:
- 野生动物生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 贝叶斯统计学 贝叶斯统计学
背景情况:
- 准确的种群丰度估计对于管理被捕野生动物种群和制定有效法规至关重要.
- 传统方法通常需要昂贵的辅助数据,限制在精细的空间尺度上可靠的估计.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用贝叶斯综合种群模型 (IPM) 以仅使用收获数据来估计田纳西州白尾鹿的数量.
- 提供精确的丰度估计,无论是在全州和鹿管理单位 (DMU) 层面,这些数据以前缺乏.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个贝叶斯集成人口模型 (IPM),利用报告的收获数据和猎人调查估计.
- 将IPM与2005年至2023年的全州和DMU特定数据相匹配.
- 整合了信息先验和规范化参数,以提高模型性能.
主要成果:
- 据估计,在2023年,田纳西州的全州白尾鹿数量将达到890,657头 (90%CRI 786,6271,172,514).
- 在全州范围内观察到的年收获为132,256至181,477头鹿 (平均值=160,050).
- 在研究期间,估计人口增长率的中位数为0.99 (90%CRI 0.9781.003).
结论:
- 开发的IPM有效地估计了人口丰度和人口统计率,仅使用收获数据和信息先验.
- 这种灵活的建模方法可以在更细微的空间尺度上监测被采集的种群,支持基于数据的采集管理决策.
- 该研究强调了贝叶斯的IPM在数据有限的情况下对野生动物管理的有用性.
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