中国主食作物种植系统的历史碳排放和未来减排潜力
Haotian Tong1, Xu Guo2, Muhammad Shahbaz3
1School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
Journal of environmental management
|June 18, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 中国日益增长的主食需求影响全球粮食安全.
- 了解主食种植产生的碳排放对于系统可持续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国主食粮食作物系统的历史碳排放趋势.
- 根据各种情景预测未来的排放潜力.
- 评估可持续农业发展和粮食安全的战略.
主要方法:
- 使用GIS和统计数据构建了一个碳排放会计模型.
- 使用脱模型来分析生产-排放趋势.
- 用于未来排放预测的利用场景规划 (SP).
主要成果:
- 碳排放在2015-2016年左右达到峰值,现在已经下降了18万亿加.
- 现场管理是最大的排放来源,但所有子系统都呈现下降趋势.
- 实现了生产和排放的薄弱脱;碳汇是显著的.
结论:
- 未来的排放取决于场景; 技术进步和减少食物损失是关键.
- 减少食物损失显示出显著的减排潜力.
- 可持续发展需要评估区域地位,并将粮食安全和气候行动的关键措施结合起来.
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