全球风能和太阳能系统应对气候变化的战略
Dongsheng Zheng1, Xizhe Yan1, Dan Tong2
1Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature
|June 18, 2025
概括
在依赖风能和太阳能发电的国家, 极端时期气候变化会增加电力成本. 实施灵活的能源战略可以大大减轻这些不断上升的成本.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析
- 气候变化影响研究
- 电网经济学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将增加电力系统供需失衡的频率和严重性.
- 风能和太阳能等可变可再生能源的透率很高,
- 未来的电力系统需要更强的弹性来应对气候驱动的破坏.
研究的目的:
- 量化因气候变化加剧的供需差距而导致的每小时电力成本的潜在增加.
- 在固定,高风能和太阳能发电场景下评估这些差距的影响.
- 探索改善电力系统应对气候变化的策略.
主要方法:
- 使用调度优化模型来模拟未来的电力系统操作.
- 分析了每小时的成本,重点关注极端时期 (10%最昂贵的时间).
- 评估各种减缓策略以提高系统的灵活性和弹性.
主要成果:
- 由于对灵活能源容量的需求增加,极端时期在大多数国家预计将变得更加昂贵.
- 在SSP1-2.6情景下,47个国家在极端时期的平均每小时成本可能会增加5%以上,有些国家达到23.7%.
- 这些成本上升与气候变化加剧的电力供需差距有关.
结论:
- 包括多项措施在内的量身定制的国家战略可以大大降低电力成本上升的风险.
- 应对供需不平衡和提高灵活性的战略的协调实施至关重要.
- 这些发现为未来开发具有成本效益和气候适应性的电力系统提供了洞察力.
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