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基于模型的评估,对苏格兰烟草最低价格的潜在影响

Duncan Gillespie¹, Damon Morris², Colin Angus²

¹Sheffield Addictions Research Group, School of Medicine and Population Health, Sheffield, UK duncan.gillespie@sheffield.ac.uk.

Tobacco control

|June 18, 2025

概括

在苏格兰实施最低烟草价格可以显著降低吸烟率并改善公共卫生结果,特别是在贫困地区. 这一政策旨在减少吸烟者数量以及与此相关的健康危害.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
卫生经济学卫生经济学
烟草控制政策烟草控制政策

背景情况:

烟草最低价格规定为烟草产品设定法律最低价格.
这项研究评估了五个最低价格门对苏格兰吸烟行为,健康和经济结果的潜在影响.
这项研究将这些最低价格与烟草税的增加结合起来.

研究的目的:

估计不同最低烟草价格门对苏格兰吸烟率和消费的影响.
评估相关的健康益处,包括降低死亡率和住院率.
分析对个人,国家卫生服务和英国政府的经济后果.

主要方法:

利用了谢菲尔德烟草和酒精政策模型,一个基于个人的微观模拟.
包括来自苏格兰健康调查,生活成本和食品调查以及医院/死亡记录的数据.
每根香烟棒的最低价格在0.40英到0.80英之间,对手工卷烟和工厂制造的烟草进行区分.

主要成果:

如果在2024年实施0.60英的最低价格,到2034年可以减少16327名吸烟者,防止285人死亡.
这一政策预计将使持续吸烟者的每周烟草支出增加7.21英.
据估计,贫困地区的健康收益更大,苏格兰国家卫生服务部门节省了大量资金.

结论:

烟草最低价格,加上关税增加,可以有效地降低吸烟率并改善公共卫生.
该政策对改善贫困地区的健康状况特别有希望,因为在贫困地区,吸烟带来的危害最为集中.
经济影响包括政府税收收入减少,但烟草行业收入增加,以及医疗保健方面的大幅节省.

关键词:

价格价格价格价格价格公共政策公共政策社会经济地位社会经济地位税收税收税收税收烟草行业的烟草行业,就是烟草行业.

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