气候变化对全球农业的影响
Andrew Hultgren1, Tamma Carleton2,3, Michael Delgado4
1Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA. ahultgr@illinois.edu.
Nature
|June 18, 2025
概括
气候变化导致全球粮食系统的重大损失,估计每年每1°C升高5.5×1014卡路里. 适应和收入增长将减轻部分损失, 但粮食安全仍面临重大挑战.
科学领域:
- 农业科学
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球粮食系统构成重大威胁.
- 农业适应可以在多大程度上减轻气候变化造成的损失.
- 之前的研究缺乏对现实世界生产者适应的系统和全球分析.
研究的目的:
- 经验地估计全球生产者适应对农业生产力的影响.
- 量化在气候变化下确保全球粮食安全所需的适应规模.
主要方法:
- 使用了12658个地区的六种主食作物的纵向数据,覆盖了全球作物热量的三分之二.
- 使用统计分析来估计全球平均表面温度 (GMST) 对作物生产和适应的影响.
主要成果:
- 全球产量每年下降5.5×1014千卡,每升高1°C.
- 预计到2050年,适应和收入增长将减轻23%的全球损失,到2100年将减轻34%的全球损失 (适度排放情况).
- 预计大多数主食作物将出现大量剩余损失,影响主要集中在当前农业粮食库中.
结论:
- 即使在适应和收入增长的情况下,全球粮食生产仍预计会出现重大剩余损失.
- 在气候变化中确保粮食安全将需要实质性的创新,耕地扩张或进一步适应.
- 影响不仅集中在低收入地区,主要粮食库也面临重大损失.
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