超越中位数选民:一种意识形态维度如何塑造政党两极分化的一个模型
1Universidade Federal do ABC, Centro de Matemática, Computação e Cognição, 09210-170 Santo André, São Paulo, Brazil.
Physical review. E
|June 19, 2025
概括
党派两极分化在全球范围内日益加剧,但选民两极分化问题仍在争论中. 一个新的模型建议意识形态维度,而不是问题两极分化,驱动政党两极分化,解释这些悖论.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
背景情况:
- 全球政党两极分化,特别是在美国,引起了对民主健康的担忧.
- 现有研究提出了悖论:增加的政党两极分化与有争议的选民问题两极分化形成了对比,预计更多的问题会稀释,而不是放大两极分化.
研究的目的:
- 从理论上研究政党两极分化和选民两极分化的原因.
- 解决政治学文献中关于两极化动态的悖论.
- 开发一个数学模型,解释政党在选举中的战略定位.
主要方法:
- 对两党选举的数学模型的分析.
- 在多维意识形态空间中模拟选民和政党之间的互动.
- 对影响政党定位的选民支持关键门的方程的推导.
主要成果:
- 党派战略定位的关键门主要取决于意识形态空间的有效维度.
- 意识形态维度的下降显著增加了这一门,促进了两极分化.
- 选民问题两极化在模型的两极化动态中起着次要的作用.
结论:
- 该模型通过将意识形态维度与政党两极分化联系起来来解释这些悖论.
- 确定了一个"库里点":在这个值以下,各方呈现铁磁性极化;在它以上,它们向中心转移 (类型为磁性).
- 意识形态维度是推动政党两极分化的一个关键因素,为民主政治动态提供了新的视角.
相关概念视频
Group Polarization
35.7K
Group polarization is the strengthening of an original group attitude following the discussion of views within a group (Teger & Pruitt, 1967). That is, if a group initially favors a viewpoint, after discussion the group consensus is likely a stronger endorsement of the viewpoint. Conversely, if the group was initially opposed to a viewpoint, group discussion would likely lead to stronger opposition.
35.7K
In- and Out-Groups
40.2K
People all belong to a gender, race, age, and social economic group. These groups provide a powerful source of our identity and self-esteem (Tajfel & Turner, 1979) and serve as our in-groups. An in-group is a group that we identify with or see ourselves as belonging to.
40.2K
Stereotype Content Model
14.9K
The Stereotype Content Model (SCM) was first proposed by Susan Fiske and her colleagues (Fiske, Cuddy, Glick & Xu, 2002; see also Fiske, 2012 and Fiske, 2017). The SCM specifies that when someone encounters a new group, they will stereotype them based on two metrics: warmth—or that group’s perceived intent, and how likely they are to provide help or inflict harm—and competence—or their ability to carry out that objective. Depending on the warmth-competence...
14.9K
Implicit Personality Theories
1
Implicit personality theory explains how individuals make assumptions about the relationships between personality traits, behaviors, and character types. When people learn that someone possesses a particular trait, they tend to infer the presence of other related characteristics, forming a cohesive impression. This cognitive shortcut plays a crucial role in social interactions and interpersonal judgments.Central Traits and Their InfluenceSolomon Asch's seminal 1946 study highlighted the power...
1
Impact of Groups on Groups
3
Social psychologists analyze how groups influence one another, shaping social structures and interactions through both cooperation and competition. These dynamics manifest in various ways, ranging from economic partnerships to intergroup conflicts that shape societal structures and perceptions.Cooperation and Competition in Intergroup RelationsIntergroup relationships vary across contexts, sometimes fostering cooperation and mutual benefit while at other times leading to conflict and...
3
Theory of Attribution II: Kelley's Covariation Theory
7
Attribution theory plays a crucial role in social psychology, helping to explain how individuals interpret the causes of behavior. One prominent model within this field is Harold Kelley's covariation theory, which provides a systematic approach to determining whether internal traits or external circumstances drive a person's actions. The model posits that individuals rely on three key types of information—consensus, consistency, and distinctiveness—to make these judgments.Consensus:...
7


