气候变化对加纳道路交通事故的影响
Ruth Akorli1, Philip Antwi-Agyei2, Patrick Davies3
1Department of Environmental Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana. ruakorli@gmail.com.
International journal of biometeorology
|June 19, 2025
概括
气候变化对加纳的道路交通事故 (RTC) 有重大影响,特别是在雨季. 降雨量增加与较高的撞车严重程度和死亡人数密切相关,因此需要针对天气的道路安全策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 运输安全运输安全
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,道路交通事故 (RTC) 造成重大伤害和死亡.
- 气候变化对加纳RTC的具体影响仍未得到充分研究.
- 了解与气候有关的风险对于改善道路安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对加纳道路交通事故的影响.
- 量化气候因素 (降雨,温度) 与RTC严重程度之间的关系.
- 识别与RTC相关的季节性模式和特定的天气相关风险.
主要方法:
- 结合了定量 (曼-肯德尔趋势测试,连续波形变换,因果推理) 和定性 (利益相关者采访) 的方法.
- 利用了加纳10个地区的每月降雨和温度数据 (1991-2021年) 和RTC数据 (1998-2021年).
- 进行了15次关键利益相关者采访,以收集有关气候和道路安全的看法.
主要成果:
- 在雨季 (四月至十月) 与所有地区的车祸严重程度增加之间发现了强烈的联系.
- 波形分析表明,在雨季期间,在2至8个月的周期内周期性地发生较高的撞击严重程度.
- 因果推断分析显示,降雨 (3.59%) 对致命事故的影响比雨季的温度 (0.04%) 更大.
- 利益相关者采访证实了降雨强度的感知变化与RTC严重程度之间的联系.
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是雨季降雨量增加,显著加剧了加纳道路交通事故的严重程度.
- 调查结果强调了需要基于气候的道路安全政策和干预措施的需要.
- 应对天气特异性风险对于减轻RTC和改善公共卫生结果至关重要.
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