2012-2019年和2020-2021年间中国流感相关过度死亡率的变化:基于人口的统计建模研究
Xiaowei Deng1,2, Jiangmei Liu3, Minghan Wang1
1Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Infectious diseases of poverty
|June 19, 2025
概括
2020-2021年,COVID-19大流行在中国显著降低了流感相关的过度死亡率,这可能是由于非药物干预限制了流感病毒循环. B型流感的死亡率变化较小,因此需要持续关注.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球流感流通导致显著的发病率和死亡率.
- 严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 流行病对流感病毒循环和相关过度死亡率的影响需要调查.
- 很少有研究探讨了COVID-19流行病对流感相关过度死亡率的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估2012年至2021年期间中国大陆流感相关的过度死亡率.
- 与2012-2019年基线相比,在2020-2021年期间量化流感相关过度死亡率的变化.
- 评估COVID-19大流行对流感病毒活动和相关死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了国家流感监测和疾病监测点数据.
- 采用了通用添加模型来分析所有原因 (AC),肺炎和流感 (P&I) 和呼吸道 (R) 死亡率.
- 将流感活动 (A/H1N1,A/H3N2,B),温度,湿度,COVID-19流行病状况和时间趋势纳入模型,以估计过度死亡率.
主要成果:
- 呼吸道死亡率模型表现出高性能,解释了90%以上的差异.
- 流感A/H1N1和A/H3N2相关的过度呼吸道死亡率 (ERM) 从2012-2019年到2020-2021年在中国北部和南部大幅下降.
- 与流感B相关的ERM仍然相对一致,南方地区的ERM在两个时期之间变化很小.
结论:
- COVID-19大流行导致流感相关的过度死亡率减少,这可能归因于减少流感病毒循环的非药物干预措施.
- 观察到与流感相关的所有原因,肺炎和流感以及呼吸道死亡率的不同区域模式.
- 流感B的持续贡献强调了需要持续监测和关注其活动的必要性.
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