使用人口的大小结构推断范围动态和招募频率
Jenny Ann Sweatman1,2, J David Aguirre2, Adam N H Smith3
1School of Natural Sciences Massey University Auckland New Zealand.
Ecology and evolution
|June 20, 2025
概括
气候变化推动了物种范围的变化. 分析塔斯马尼亚和新西兰的子大小结构显示,即使没有时间序列数据,最近的南方殖民和不同的招募模式也存在.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在改变全球物种分布.
- 由于时间序列数据有限,跟踪物种范围的变化具有挑战性.
- 长脊 (Centrostephanus rodgersii) 在塔斯马尼亚扩大了其范围,导致生态系统变化.
研究的目的:
- 为了推断C.的人口和招聘动态. rodgersii 在新西兰东北部 (NENZ).
- 评估种群大小结构数据的有用性,以了解没有历史数据的物种范围动态.
主要方法:
- 利用贝叶斯模型分析了C.的尺寸结构 (鱼尺寸的平均值和标准偏差). 罗德杰西人群.罗德杰西人群.
- 使用模拟研究和来自塔斯马尼亚扩展范围的经验数据验证了模型.
- 塔斯马尼亚和NENZ种群之间的尺寸结构模式的比较.
主要成果:
- 观察到平均鱼大小的极向下降,与范围的扩展一致.
- 在NENZ中,平均尺寸向北极的下降表明最近向南的殖民.
- 在NENZ中尺寸的标准偏差增加表明招聘频率的极向增加,与塔斯马尼亚的范围边缘有限的招聘形成鲜明对比.
结论:
- 种群大小结构是了解物种范围动态和招募模式的有价值的代理.
- 这些发现表明C. sequentialis的顺序性,向南的殖民. rodgersii 在NENZ. 在NENZ.
- 这种方法为数据有限的场景中的范围转移提供了洞察力.
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