与职业暴露相关的肺癌终身风险的不确定性间隔的推导方法
M Sommer1, N Fenske1, C Heumann2
1Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingolstädter Landstrasse 1, 85764 Oberschleissheim Neuherberg, Germany.
Health physics
|June 20, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了计算职业暴露终身肺癌风险不确定性间隔的新方法. 风险模型参数造成了最大的不确定性,突出了强有力的辐射保护政策的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
- 辐射流行病学 辐射流行病学
背景情况:
- 终身风险量化了辐射暴露的健康风险,对于辐射损害评估和剂量转换至关重要.
- 职业暴露对肺癌死亡率构成重大风险.
- 在文献中,对终身风险估计的不确定性间隔和统计方法很少被介绍.
研究的目的:
- 引入和讨论新的方法来推导一生肺癌风险估计的不确定性间隔.
- 模拟风险模型参数和基线死亡率中的不确定性.
- 将这些方法应用于德国"威斯穆特"矿工队列研究.
主要方法:
- 利用近似正常性假设 (ANA) 方法和贝叶斯技术来量化风险模型参数中的不确定性.
- 使用世卫组织死亡数据库信息评估了基线肺癌死亡率的不确定性.
- 在所有不确定性评估方法中采用蒙特卡洛模拟.
主要成果:
- 风险模型参数的不确定性被确定为终身风险不确定性的最大贡献者.
- 对于特定的暴露场景,使用ANA的"1960+"子队列的终身超额绝对风险 (LEAR) 为6.70% [3.26;12.28].
- ANA和贝叶斯方法产生了类似的结果,但在终身风险指标上存在很小的差异.
结论:
- 风险模型参数的不确定性显著影响了防护的终身风险计算.
- 在评估终身风险不确定性时,ANA方法对于大多数情况下都是实用的和推的.
- 这些发现需要在制定基于终身风险的辐射保护政策时加以考虑.
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