气候变化对地下水的影响:巴西水资源可持续性面临越来越大的挑战
Ricardo Hirata1, Leila Goodarzi2, Fernando Schuh Rörig1
1Groundwater Research Center, Institute of Geosciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|June 20, 2025
概括
气候变化将大大减少巴西的水供应和地下水补充,特别是在脆弱的地区. 紧急的综合水资源管理对于应对未来的水资源短缺挑战至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 由于区域差异和人类压力,巴西经常面临水资源短缺问题,气候变化加剧了这种情况.
- 预计未来的气候变化将加剧对巴西表面和地下水资源的压力.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计气候变化对巴西未来水资源供应和地下水层补充的影响.
- 为了评估不同排放场景下的降水,温度,地表排水和地下水补充 (GWR) 的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用基于GIS的分布式水平衡模型来评估水的可用性.
- 分析了对共享社会经济路径 (SSP245和SSP585) 的偏差纠正CMIP6预测,用于未来三个时期 (2025-2100年).
- 计算了月度水平衡参数,汇总为年均值,并与历史基线 (1980-2013) 进行比较.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,SSP245和SSP585的气温将分别从1.02°C升高到3.66°C升高.
- 降水变化是可变的,预计在北部和东部地区降低,影响表面下水.
- 预计地下水补充量 (GWR) 将大幅下降,高达-666毫米/年,巴乌鲁-卡伊瓦水表系统面临高达-27.94%的减少.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将减少巴西各地的水资源供应和含水层补充,增加对地下水的依赖.
- 预计多个主要的含水层系统将大幅减少GWR.
- 综合水资源管理战略对于平衡巴西未来的水需求和供应至关重要.
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