作为减缓策略的植树:应对中国森林碳吸收带来的气候风险
Yuan Cao1,2,3, Deyu Zhong4,5,6, Rong Shang7
1State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Carbon balance and management
|June 21, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 林业科学 林业科学
- 气候变化研究研究气候变化研究
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 自20世纪70年代以来,中国的广泛植树增加了其森林碳汇.
- 未来的碳汇动态面临着气候变化,森林年龄和二氧化碳水平的不确定性.
- 量化植树在未来碳封存中的作用至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同情景下预测中国未来的森林碳动态.
- 评估气候引起的森林碳捕获风险.
- 评估计划植树对碳捕获的贡献.
主要方法:
- 森林生长模型与最大 (MaxEnt) 模型的整合.
- 基于息地适宜性转变的未来碳动态预测.
- 应用一个自然场景和一个植树场景.
主要成果:
- 2020年基线地面生物量 (AGB) 为11.59±4.06 PgC.
- 在自然场景下,AGB预计将增加,但扣押率将下降.
- 植树可能会增加117.90129.32兆公里的森林面积,这对封存有很大影响.
结论:
- 气候变化威胁着中国的森林稳定性和封存率.
- 造林是提高未来森林碳汇的重要策略.
- 该研究为中国的森林管理提供了空间评估和政策指导.
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