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Fredric Mosley¹, Jari Niemi², Sampo Soimakallio²

¹Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland. fredric.mosley@syke.fi.

Carbon balance and management

|June 21, 2025

概括

芬兰的目标是到2035年实现碳中和,依靠其森林碳汇. 这项研究引入了一种新工具,用于准确估计森林温室气体 (GHG) 余额,改善气候目标的预测.

科学领域:

林业科学林业科学
气候变化缓解减缓气候变化缓解减缓
温室气体清单方法温室气体清单方法

背景情况:

芬兰"气候法"的目标是到2035年实现碳中和,森林碳汇发挥着至关重要的作用.
场景模型 (NECP) 和用于估计森林土地温室气体 (GHG) 余额的库存方法之间存在差异.
准确预测森林碳汇的情况对于实现国家气候目标至关重要.

研究的目的:

使用温室气体清单方法开发和验证用于估计森林土地温室气体平衡的工具.
预测到2035年,在不同的收获情景下,未来的森林碳吸收能力.
改善场景建模与官方排放报告之间的方法兼容性.

主要方法:

引入一个"合成清单"工具来估计森林土地的温室气体平衡.
通过将其输出与芬兰温室气体库存的历史数据进行比较来验证该工具.
基于不同圆木和森林残留物收获率的温室气体平衡到2035年的预测.

主要成果:

"合成清单"工具复制了历史森林温室气体平衡,平均每年误差为1.0万二氧化碳 (4%的平均消化量).
据估计,2035年森林温室气体平衡在3至-32万二氧化碳等级之间,这取决于年度排放水平 (92,80,70毫米3).
该工具显示出高精度和适应新数据的适应性.

结论:

2035年森林土地净温室气体平衡预计将比芬兰NECP估计的高约12万CO2eq.
差异来自于估计生物质收益/损失的方法和固有的不确定性之间的概念变化.
本文介绍的工具与林地国家库存报告2023方法相一致.

关键词:

资产负债表的平衡情况碳碳碳碳碳森林的森林森林的森林.温室气体库存温室气体库存国家库存报告国家库存报告一个沉没的水槽

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