肺癌发病率和死亡率的全球趋势,按年龄,性别和形态和预测划分:基于引导的分析
Jinto Edakkalathoor George1, Preethi Sara George1, Jagathnath K M Krishna1
1Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Regional Cancer Centre, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India.
Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|June 21, 2025
概括
全球范围内,肺癌发病率和死亡率在男性中正在下降,但在女性中正在上升. 预测显示持续增加,突出需要戒烟和空气污染研究.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肺癌 (LC) 是全球癌症死亡的主要原因之一.
- 了解时间趋势和未来负担对于规划干预至关重要.
- 这项研究分析了LC发病率和死亡率的时间趋势,并预测了全球发病率.
研究的目的:
- 从1970年到2020年,分析肺癌发病率和死亡率的时间趋势.
- 预测到2030年全球的肺癌发病率.
- 为了确定肺癌趋势中的人口和形态模式.
主要方法:
- 在36个人群中利用了"随时间推移的癌症"和CI5plus (1970-2020) 的数据.
- 雇员结合点回归用于计算时间趋势的年平均百分比变化 (AAPC).
- 应用时间序列启动方法用于未来的利率估计和ARIMA用于准确性评估.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,LC的发病率和死亡率在男性中下降,但在特定的国家有例外.
- 在大多数地区,女性的发病率和死亡率都在增加.
- 腺癌发病率在两种性别上升,特别是在智利;在欧洲,状细胞和小细胞癌在女性中增加.
结论:
- 持续的戒烟努力对于降低肺癌负担至关重要.
- 需要进一步的研究来探索空气污染和腺癌之间的联系.
- 预计到2030年的比例表明,在特定的国家,男性和女性的负担很高.
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