整合非点源污染的时空变性和最佳管理实践的效率,以改善适应性流域管理
Jiaqi Li1, Guowangchen Liu2, Zhenyao Shen1
1State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, PR China.
Water research
|June 22, 2025
概括
非点源 (NPS) 污染管理必须考虑到时空空间的变化. 对污染物负载和最佳管理实践 (BMP) 的动态评估提高了流域弹性,并在不断变化的水文条件下优化了控制成本.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 非点源 (NPS) 污染严重降低了水质,因为时间空间的变化.
- 现有的流域管理策略经常使用静态假设,未能解决动态污染物负载和最佳管理实践 (BMP) 的表现.
- 不断变化的水文条件加剧了有效流域管理的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的框架来评估时空变异对流域管理的影响.
- 为适应环境变化的BMP战略提供定量见解.
- 提高流域管理系统的弹性.
主要方法:
- 结合Copula和贝叶斯模型,在各种水文条件下生成污染物负载场景.
- 自组织地图与多重回归相结合,以评估动态BMP效率.
- 在河流域的案例研究应用,中国.
主要成果:
- 污染物分布的时间变化导致了显著的成本波动 (干旱年增加38.91%,潮湿年减少23.38%).
- 空间变化使所需的控制面积增加了25.99%,控制成本增加了31.98%.
- 一个为期五年的BMP运营期将管理成本降到最低;BMP效率的空间变化增加了15.55%-28.97%的成本.
结论:
- 时空空间的变化极大地影响了流域管理的成本和效益.
- 适应性BMP布局和运营周期对于在动态条件下优化管理至关重要.
- 拟议的框架支持加强流域管理在面对环境变化的弹性.
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