预计人口老龄化和气候变暖对日本紧急救护车需求的复合影响
Lina Madaniyazi1, Kazutaka Oka2, Yasushi Honda2
1School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Environment international
|June 22, 2025
概括
由于人口老龄化和气候变化,日本未来的紧急救护车 (EAD) 调度将增加,夏季和冬季需求都将增加. 适应性策略对于管理这些不断变化的EAD需求至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 紧急医疗服务 (EMS) 面临着人口老龄化和气候变化的挑战.
- 气候变暖对冬季紧急救护车发送 (EAD) 发生率的影响尚不确定.
- 这项研究模拟了气候和人口变化对日本未来EAD需求的综合影响.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测日本未来对EAD的季节性需求.
- 分析人口变化和气候变化对EAD发病率的综合影响.
- 评估EAD季节性和负担的变化.
主要方法:
- 分析了超过2600万个老年人 (2011-2019) 中所有原因的EAD病例.
- 2011-2099年使用气候人口情景的EAD发病率预测.
- 使用峰值-低谷比率 (PTR) 和归因分数 (AF) 进行当前和未来EAD季节性的比较.
主要成果:
- 预计每年EAD病例将增加15%,直到本世纪中叶,然后下降.
- 到20世纪90年代,年发病率可能会上升2.95%-4.25%.
- 峰值EAD发病率预计将转移到更温暖的月份,而高冬季发病率仍然存在,季节性增加.
结论:
- 老年人对EMS的需求将会增加,特别是在本世纪中叶.
- 未来的EAD需求将在夏季和冬季都很高.
- 需要适应性策略来管理增加的EMS需求和不断变化的季节性模式.
相关概念视频
Current Trends in Nursing I
1.7K
Current trends in nursing include:
1.7K
The Effect of Aging on Tissues
2.6K
Several body functions deteriorate with age. The external signs of aging are easily identifiable. For example, the skin becomes dry, less elastic, and thins out, forming wrinkles. The skin of the face begins to appear looser due to a decrease in the levels of elastic and collagen fibers in the connective tissue. Additionally, melanin production in the hair follicle decreases with age, resulting in gray hair. Moreover, the senses of sight and hearing decline, so glasses and hearing aids may...
2.6K
Global Climate Change
24.8K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.8K
Bystander Effect
9.7K
The discussion of bullying highlights the problem of witnesses not intervening to help a victim. This is a common occurrence, as the following well-publicized event demonstrates. In 1964, in Queens, New York, a 19-year-old woman named Kitty Genovese was attacked by a person with a knife near the back entrance to her apartment building and again in the hallway inside her apartment building. When the attack occurred, she screamed for help numerous times and eventually died from her stab wounds.
9.7K
Issues And Trends In Healthcare Delivery System
5.9K
The issues and trends in healthcare delivery are constantly changing. The COVID-19 pandemic is one recent issue that wreaked havoc on healthcare systems, causing a shortage of healthcare workers, high demand for medicines and supplies, and increased medical expenditure due to a lack of insurance. Other issues include rising healthcare costs and care fragmentation.
Cost Containment
Payment for healthcare services has historically promoted adoption of costly and often unnecessary or inefficient...
Cost Containment
Payment for healthcare services has historically promoted adoption of costly and often unnecessary or inefficient...
5.9K
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
164
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
164


