在单一国家CGE模型中对贸易效应的近似值
Andrew Schreiber1, Alex Marten1, Ann Wolverton1
1National Center for Environmental Economics, Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20004.
概括
大型开放经济体显著影响全球贸易. 本研究介绍了一种模拟这些效应的方法,通过计算贸易条款来提高可计算一般平衡 (CGE) 模型的准确性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 计算经济学计算经济学
背景情况:
- 单个国家可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型通常假设国际市场的价格行为.
- 这种假设可能忽略了贸易影响的关键条款,特别是在大型经济体的贸易暴露部门.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉具有显著市场力量的经济体全球贸易联系的细微差别.
研究的目的:
- 评估在CGE框架内建模大型开放经济体的数值证据.
- 开发和验证一种方法来通过缩小形式的方法来接近国际贸易联系.
- 评估大型开放经济假设在非贸易政策分析中的意义.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种方法来参数化国际贸易联系的缩小形式近似.
- 利用一个多区域的全球经济模型来得出模拟的出口需求和进口供应弹性.
- 将缩小形式的方法与具有明确贸易联系的多区域静态模型进行比较.
- 将校准程序扩展到一个动态模型,以美国环保署的SAGE模型为例.
主要成果:
- 模拟弹性表明,小开放经济假设 (价格设定) 可以掩盖出口和某些进口市场的重要影响.
- 拟议的缩小形式方法用于捕捉贸易效应的条款,其性能与多区域静态模型相提并论.
- 大型开放经济假设在非贸易政策应用中具有重要意义.
结论:
- 该研究强调了大型经济体单一国家CGE模型中价格设定假设的局限性.
- 缩小形式的近似有效地捕捉了贸易效应的条款,为建模大型开放经济体提供了可行的替代方案.
- 对大型开放经济体的准确建模对于非贸易政策评估至关重要,这强调了纳入市场力量动态的重要性.
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