一般集合人口统计模型具有多种风险
Josep Grau-Bové1, Miriam Andrews1
1University College London, London, UK.
概括
本研究引入了一个基于代理的模型 (ABM),模拟收藏品中的物体恶化. 它结合了连续和概率性降解来预测收藏寿命和条件衰变.
科学领域:
- 遗产科学科学 遗产科学
- 计算建模 计算建模
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 文化机构的藏品面临着复杂的恶化过程.
- 了解物体的寿命对于有效的保存策略至关重要.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉连续和概率性降解的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的基于代理物的模型 (ABM),用于模拟收藏品中的物体恶化.
- 在统一的框架内结合连续和概率性降解机制.
- 探索新出现的行为,并预测收藏的寿命.
主要方法:
- 基于代理的建模 (ABM) 采用蒙特卡洛采样.
- 损害函数与ABC框架不良事件风险参数的整合.
- 混合方法结合连续和概率降解模拟.
- 用纸作为代表性收集材料进行测试的玩具应用.
主要成果:
- 该模型成功模拟了由于组合降解过程而导致的集合条件的衰变.
- 它提供了关于在各种恶化场景下收藏的新兴行为的见解.
- 该模型允许对各种可能的收藏寿命进行探索.
结论:
- 开发的ABM提供了集合人口学原则的通用实现.
- 这种混合方法增强了对收藏品恶化和寿命预测的研究.
- 该模型作为未来研究和识别保护差距的基础.
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