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2°C的升温可以使阿尔卑斯山极端夏季暴雨的频率增加一倍
Nadav Peleg1,2, Marika Koukoula1, Francesco Marra3
1Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
概括
由于全球变暖,山区的极端夏季降雨正在加剧. 这增加了突然洪水和碎片流的风险,影响了基础设施设计和安全.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
- 天然危害 天然危害
背景情况:
- 在山区,短时间的夏季强烈降雨可能导致洪水,碎片流和城市洪水.
- 全球变暖预计将加剧由于大气水蒸气和风暴动态的增加而导致极端小时降雨.
研究的目的:
- 估计阿尔卑斯山地区每小时和每小时极端降雨预计的加剧.
- 分析极端降雨统计数据的变化,以增加区域温度.
主要方法:
- 利用一种新的基于物理的统计模型.
- 分析了来自法国,德国,瑞士,意大利和奥地利299个高山阿尔卑斯山站的数据.
- 在1到3°C的升温下,对10分钟的降雨强度进行评估.
主要成果:
- 确认了阿尔卑斯山地区极端降雨的普遍加剧,每°C升温9%的速度.
- 在较高的海拔地区观察到更强烈的强化.
- 预计极端降雨事件的概率将增加两倍,区域温度增加2°C.
结论:
- 预计阿尔卑斯山地区的极端降雨事件将随着变暖而显著加剧.
- 这些变化可能会使目前用于基础设施设计和风险管理的极端降雨水平的概率增加一倍.
- 极端降雨频率的增加需要山区的适应策略.
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