通过合气象,水文和水温模型来识别溪流温度变化
Chunling Tang1, Valeria Garcia2
1Office of Research, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
概括
这项研究将河流流域模型 (RBM) 与VIC和WRF模型相结合,以模拟密西西比河流域 (MRB) 水温. 预测显示气候变暖显著,可能会影响鱼类的生存,并加剧墨西哥湾的死区.
科学领域:
- 环境建模环境建模
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 准确的水温建模对于了解河流生态系统至关重要.
- 密西西比河流域 (MRB) 面临着气候变化对其水资源的潜在影响.
- 现有的水文模型需要与水温模块集成,以进行全面的分析.
研究的目的:
- 为MRB开发和验证一个合的水文和水温模型.
- 为了评估MRB水温对空气温度变化的灵敏度.
- 在气候变化情景下预测未来的流体温度趋势.
主要方法:
- 将河流流域模型 (RBM) 与可变透能力 (VIC) 和天气研究和预测 (WRF) 模型相结合.
- 基于物理的半拉格朗斯方法来模拟水温.
- 根据6个MRB河流测量结果的观测水温数据进行验证.
主要成果:
- 结合的VIC-RBM模型准确地模拟了MRB中观察到的水温.
- 空气温度均上升3.0°C可以使MRB水温上升1.3-1.8°C.
- 空气温度上升6.0°C可能会使水温上升3.3-4.0°C.
- 预计的河流温度 (2020-2099) 显示1.0-8.0°C的增加,超过了一些地区的本地鱼类生存值.
结论:
- 结合的VIC-RBM模型为MRB水温评估提供了一个强大的工具.
- 预计的气候变暖对MRB的水生生态系统和渔业构成重大风险.
- 水温升高可能会与营养物质负载相互作用,恶化墨西哥湾的有害藻类繁殖和死区.
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