未来规定的火灾烟雾对健康的影响:从加利福尼亚州的一种暴露场景的考虑
Andrew Rosenberg1, Sumi Hoshiko1, Joseph R Buckman1,2
1Environmental Health Investigations Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Earth's future
|June 23, 2025
概括
加利福尼亚州加利福尼亚州加利福尼亚州
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 森林管理 森林管理
背景情况:
- 加利福尼亚州越来越多的野火风险需要积极的消防管理策略.
- 规定的火灾是减轻野火风险的关键工具,但其烟雾影响需要仔细评估.
- 了解扩大规定的消防使用对健康的后果对于公共安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据未来的管理情景,量化预计的健康影响变化,从规定的火灾烟雾暴露.
- 将未来的烟雾暴露负担与历史数据 (2008-2016) 进行比较.
- 为公共卫生战略和森林管理决策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用分散模型来估计从假设的规定的火灾中产生的细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 排放.
- 计算出因PM2.5而导致的过度心肺急诊室访问,隔离了规定的火灾贡献.
- 综合时空暴露,基线发病率和人口数据,以估计未来的健康负担.
主要成果:
- 预计每年个人暴露在规定的火灾烟雾中将增加15倍.
- 与历史数据相比,在未来的暴露期间观察到较低的PM2.5度.
- 确定了未来整体健康负担的显著增加,特别是在加利福尼亚州北部,中部和南部地区.
结论:
- 扩大规定的火灾使用将大大增加暴露在烟雾中的日数和相关的健康负担.
- 战略必须考虑烟雾暴露的水平和频率,以保护公共健康.
- 森林管理机构需要做出明智的决策,以平衡野火减缓和社区福祉.
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