高树木多样性暴露在前所未有的宏观气候条件下,即使在最小的人为气候变化的情况下
Coline C F Boonman1,2, Selwyn Hoeks3, Josep M Serra-Diaz4,5
1Department of Biology, Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), Aarhus University, Aarhus C 8000, Denmark.
概括
全球树种面临着重大的气候变化,其中大多数保留了避难所,但在欧亚大陆和北美预测的高局部多样性风险. 保护工作必须优先考虑这些脆弱地区.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 人为气候变化正在全球范围内改变宏观气候条件.
- 这些变化带来了生物群转移和树种生态系统破坏的风险.
- 了解物种暴露在新的气候区对生物多样性保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化到2100年全球气候变化暴露和树种转移的数量.
- 在不同的变暖情景下,评估物种层面和当地树木多样性风险.
- 确定最容易受到宏观气候变化的地区和物种,以进行有针对性的保护.
主要方法:
- 到2100年,对32,089种树种的宏观气候变化的全球评估.
- 在高 (4°C) 和中等 (2°C) 排放场景下,模型物种暴露在未被占用的气候区中.
- 分析仅集中在宏观气候上,不包括土地利用变化和物种相互作用,以进行保守的风险估计.
主要成果:
- 平均而言,预计到2100年,69%的树种将在至少10%的范围中经历宏观气候变化 (高排放场景).
- 14%的物种在50%以上的范围面临变化,这表明大多数物种保留了气候避难所.
- 预计欧亚大陆,北美西北部,智利北部和亚马逊三角洲将面临严重的当地树木多样性.
结论:
- 大多数树种可能保留气候避难所,但在特定地区,当地树木多样性面临着重大风险.
- 温和的变暖 (2°C) 在很大程度上限制了北半球泰加的高多样性暴露.
- 研究结果支持有针对性的保护策略,如监测,辅助迁移和难民保护,以提高生态系统的弹性.
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