随机的土地使用路径生成允许高效的多结果评估
Joshua P Copping1, Richard B Bradbury2,3, Rob H Field2
1Centre for Conservation Science, RSPB, Sandy, Bedfordshire, UK. joshua.copping@rspb.org.uk.
Scientific reports
|June 23, 2025
概括
探索英国的1万个土地使用未来,揭示了实现净零排放的多种途径. 这些情景强调了气候缓解,粮食生产和生物多样性之间的固有权衡,根据决策规模的不同结果.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 土地使用规划 土地使用规划
背景情况:
- 土地使用场景建模对于应对生物多样性丧失,气候变化和粮食安全等相互关联的环境挑战至关重要.
- 从众多潜在的未来土地利用途径中确定有效的解决方案对于有效的环境政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为英国生成和评估一大批随机的土地使用途径,以确定有效的途径,以实现净零土地部门.
- 分析这些途径对粮食生产和繁殖鸟类息地的影响.
- 为了比较土地使用决策的效率和公平性,在国家与下放国家规模.
主要方法:
- 为英国创造10,000个随机的未来土地使用途径.
- 在每个路径中包含八个随机部署的陆地气候变化缓解措施.
- 考虑净零目标,粮食生产和息地可用性的途径的多标准评估.
主要成果:
- 为了实现英国的净零土地部门,存在多种不同的途径.
- 在气候减缓目标,粮食生产水平和繁殖鸟类息地可用性之间观察到显著的权衡.
- 已识别的途径比以前更有限的研究中更有效.
- 英国规模的决策表现出稍微更高的效率,但与分权国家规模的决策相比,导致不太公平的结果.
结论:
- 通过各种土地使用策略,在英国实现净零土地部门是可行的,但需要仔细管理固有的权衡.
- 为减缓气候变化,粮食安全和生物多样性优化土地利用,需要考虑不同的空间和治理尺度.
- 与英国规模的方法相比,转移国家规模的决策可能为土地利用管理提供更公平的解决方案,尽管效率差异较小.
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