减少空气污染对2020年初COVID-19封锁期间死亡率的影响
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Research report (Health Effects Institute)
|June 24, 2025
概括
COVID-19封锁减少了空气污染 (二氧化和细颗粒物),导致死亡人数减少. 根据地区的健康益处有所不同,这凸显了对本地化排放控制策略的需求.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19的封锁,全球空气污染物排放量显著减少.
- 这为研究空气污染对死亡率的影响提供了独特的机会.
- 选择了四个地区 (中国的江苏;美国的加利福尼亚州;意大利中部/南部;德国) 受到2020年初疫情的轻微影响.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID-19封锁期间量化二氧化 (NO2) 和细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 度的变化.
- 估计短期暴露于NO2和PM2.5与死亡率之间的关联.
- 计算可归因于空气污染减少的死亡率变化.
主要方法:
- 使用机器学习进行气象规范化和差异差异,以评估污染变化.
- 利用互动固定效应模型与每日空气污染和死亡率数据 (2015-2019) 进行了交互.
- 因果建模估计了日常污染波动与死亡率 (所有原因,自然原因,心血管疾病) 之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 在江苏,加利福尼亚和意大利的封锁期间,空气质量有所改善,NO2的减少比PM2.5.5更大.
- 德国没有显著的NO2减少,PM2.5略有增加.
- 在所有地区 (2015-2019) 中,在短期NO2/PM2.5增加和死亡率之间发现了显著的关联.
- 与封锁相关的NO2减少分别避免了1.41,0.44和4.66人死亡/100,000在江苏,加利福尼亚和意大利.
- 在江苏省,加利福尼亚州和意大利,减少的PM2.5分别避免了0.16,0.23和0.91死亡/100,000人.
- 德国:NO2变化对死亡率的影响不显著;PM2.5增加与0.35死亡/100,000增加相关.
结论:
- 短期暴露于PM2.5和NO2与增加的死亡率有关.
- 2020年初的封锁措施总体上改善了空气质量,并带来了健康益处,特别是NO2减少.
- 区域间观察到的异质性强调了在调整排放控制策略时需要考虑当地因素的必要性.
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