根据医疗需求和医生的可用性,预测未来的医疗费用
Hyejin Joo1,2, Jinwook Hong3, Jaehun Jung1,4
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Journal of Korean medical science
|June 24, 2025
概括
韩国 韩国 韩国 韩国
科学领域:
- 医疗保健经济学 医疗保健经济学
- 人口统计分析 人口统计分析
- 卫生工作人员规划卫生工作人员规划
背景情况:
- 韩国国家医疗保险的可持续性是一个日益关注的问题.
- 对医疗保健支出和劳动力能力的准确预测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析由于人口结构变化而导致的医疗保健支出预计变化.
- 为未来的需求确定适当的医疗保健劳动力战略.
主要方法:
- 利用韩国统计局,国家健康保险服务,韩国银行和韩国发展研究所的数据.
- 采用逐步自动回归模型来预测医疗保健成本和保险费率.
- 分析了两种情况:保持目前的医学院招生配额,并将其增加1509名学生.
主要成果:
- 由于人口老龄化和低出生率,医疗服务需求预计每年增长超过4%在30年内.
- 预计到2060年,医疗保健支出与GDP的比例将达到大约20.0%.
- 预计医疗保险费率将从2024年的7.09%上升到2060年的14.39%.
结论:
- 优先考虑医疗保健系统的可持续性比仅仅增加医学学生人数更为关键.
- 科学预测未来的医疗费用是必要的,以避免负担未来几代人.
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