关于回归模型的使用和滥用:呼吁改革统计实践和教学
John B Carlin1,2,3, Margarita Moreno-Betancur1,2
1Clinical Epidemiology & Biostatistics Unit (CEBU), Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Statistics in medicine
|June 24, 2025
概括
生物统计学分析通常集中在没有明确研究目的的回归模型上. 一个新的框架强调在应用统计方法之前定义研究问题 (描述性,预测性或因果关系),以改善生物统计实践.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 临床研究 临床研究
背景情况:
- 回归方法是生物统计分析的核心.
- 目前的培训优先考虑回归模型细节,而不是实际应用目的.
- "真实模型神话"假设目标是近似数据生成过程.
研究的目的:
- 在统计实践中批评"真实模型神话".
- 在回归分析中识别出"真实模型神话"所产生的问题.
- 提出一个新的教学和应用生物统计方法的框架.
主要方法:
- 审查统计应用的历史例子.
- 分析主流临床研究期刊的回归模型使用情况.
- 开发一个以研究问题为中心的生物统计方法框架.
主要成果:
- "真实模型神话"导致诸如误导共变量调整和误解回归系数等问题.
- 回归模型通常没有明确的,明确的目的.
- 基于目的的框架将研究问题分为描述性,预测性或因果性.
结论:
- 包括回归在内的生物统计方法应根据具体的研究问题类型来应用.
- 回归模型的概念化和使用必须与它们的预期用途保持一致.
- 这种方法提高了研究中的生物统计分析的实用性和清晰度.
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