早期前列腺癌的流行病学:全球模式,风险因素和预测到2040年
Weilong Lin1,2, Yuan Ou1,2, Hao Huang3
1Department of Urology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Annals of surgical oncology
|June 24, 2025
概括
全球早期前列腺癌 (EOPC) 正在增加,特别是在年轻年龄组. 这项研究强调,迫切需要针对特定区域的查和预防策略,以应对日益增长的EOPC负担.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 早期前列腺癌 (EOPC) 查指南缺乏全球统一性.
- 建议开始年龄和查频率的变化需要进行全球分析.
- 了解EOPC流行病学对于基于证据的,针对特定地区的战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 对EOPC流行病学和疾病负担进行全面的全球分析.
- 为制定特定区域的查和干预策略提供信息.
- 预测未来的EOPC趋势,并确定需要紧急关注的领域.
主要方法:
- 利用的全球疾病负担研究数据 (1990-2021) 针对204个国家的EOPC发病率,死亡率和DALY.
- 根据社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 的水平进行分层分析,并评估了年龄标准化率和趋势.
- 采用贝叶斯的年龄期-队列建模来进行预测和边界分析来确定干预优先级.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,全球发生了58,694例新的EOPC病例和7927例死亡,在高SDI地区的负担最大.
- 在大多数SDI地区,EOPC发病率,死亡率和DALY增加,45-54岁年龄组显著增加.
- 吸烟与1%的DALYs有关,而低牛奶和摄入量显示出保护作用.
结论:
- 该研究显示,EOPC的全球负担显著且日益增加.
- 针对特定地区的查和预防策略对于应对EOPC日益增长的影响至关重要.
- 需要紧急干预,特别是在边境分析确定的地区.
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