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在改造城市排水系统时的阶段过渡:适应-可持续性权衡的计算框架
Qiyu Dong1, Lin Shu1, Shunwen Bai1
1State Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource and Environment, School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, 150090 Harbin, China.
Water research
|June 24, 2025
概括
城市排水系统 (UDS) 的气候变化适应需要动态规划. 一个新的框架揭示了一个全球最低适应成本轨迹 (GMACT),用于具有成本效益的,可持续的UDS改装.
科学领域:
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 气候变化需要对城市排水系统 (UDS) 的改造进行大量投资.
- 传统的优化方法与适应路径和静态场景的动态,非线性性质作斗争.
- 不高效的资源配置和冗余效率困境是UDS改装的关键挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个混合,基于物理和数据驱动的计算框架,以实现适应和可持续性的全球视角.
- 在UDS中建立适应策略和可持续性之间的动态关系.
- 提供一个决策支持工具,用于在不确定性条件下进行具有成本效益和可持续性的UDS升级.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个混合,基于物理和数据驱动的计算框架.
- 引入了全球最低适应成本轨迹 (GMACT) 来分析适应过渡模式.
- 用一个关于海绵城市低影响发展 (LID) 的案例研究进行演示.
主要成果:
- 早期的LID干预措施显著改善了适应能力 (24%),成本增加轻微 (10%LCC).
- 较晚阶段的LID措施显示收益下降,需要大幅增加成本 (90%的LCC) 以获得最小的适应性收益 (2%).
- 确定了适应途径的分叉模式,解决方案在成本转折点之后汇聚到GMACT.
结论:
- 在UDS中,GMACT作为适应规划的战略参考.
- 该框架支持决策者做出具有成本效益和可持续性的UDS升级决策.
- 适应和可持续性之间的动态和非线性关系对于UDS改装至关重要.
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