一个使用风险加权监测的"危险模型",用于首次检测慢性衰竭疾病
Krysten L Schuler1, Nicholas A Hollingshead1, Steven Heerkens2
1Cornell Wildlife Health Lab, Public and Ecosystem Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Health Diagnostic Center, Cornell University,, 240 Farrier Road, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA.
Preventive veterinary medicine
|June 24, 2025
概括
慢性衰竭疾病 (CWD) 的野生动物监测可以通过一种新的危险模型来改进. 该模型确定了疾病引入和传播的高风险区域,增强了野生鹿种群的早期检测.
科学领域:
- 野生动物疾病生态学
- 流行病学监测方法 流行病学监测方法
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 新出现的传染病对野生动物群体构成重大威胁.
- 有效监测疾病,如慢性衰竭疾病 (CWD) 在自由放牧的鹿是至关重要的,但往往受到知识差距的阻碍.
- 当前的监测方法可能无法充分考虑疾病引入风险和最佳采样策略.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种新的野生动物疾病监测方法,即"危险模型",以加强对新出现的疾病的早期检测.
- 将景观层面的风险,人类活动和动物种群数据纳入监测设计.
- 提高野生动物群体疾病检测的效率和可靠性,特别是白尾鹿的CWD.
主要方法:
- 征求主题专家的看法,以创建由人类活动引入疾病的风险评估.
- 通过将专家衍生的风险感知与鹿群人口统计数据和监测权重重叠加,开发了一个"危险模型".
- 在纽约 (2013-2014) 和田纳西 (2018-2019) 应用了危险模型,用于白尾鹿的CWD监测.
主要成果:
- 危险模型根据鹿种群密度,高风险的鹿类业务以及靠近CWD感染地区来确定高风险县.
- 在该模型应用的田纳西州,首例CWD病例在四个月内被检测出来.
- 该模型的建议采样强度与疾病引入风险最大的地区保持一致.
结论:
- 危险模型为优化野生动物疾病监测提供了一个灵活和可适应的框架.
- 综合风险因素和专家知识,提高了早期发现CWD等疾病的能力.
- 这种方法增加了及时检测和应对新出现的野生动物疾病的可能性.
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