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通过MaxEnt建模,评估气候变化对中国Lysimachia Christinae分布动态的影响

Yangzhou Xiang¹, Yuan Li², Ying Liu³

¹School of Geography and Resources Guizhou Education University Guiyang China.

Ecology and evolution

|June 25, 2025

概括

气候变化对药用植物Lysimachia christinae的分布产生重大影响. 像最低温度这样的热变量是关键驱动因素,需要适应性保护策略才能生存.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
生物地理学生物地理学生物地理学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

莱西马 (Lysimachia christinae) 是中国地区特有的药用植物,对生态系统和传统医学至关重要.
了解气候变化对其地理分布的影响对于保护工作至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估气候变化对莱西马基亚克里斯蒂娜 (Lysimachia christinae) 地理传播的影响.
确定影响其分布的关键气候变量.
在不同的气候场景下预测未来的息地变化.

主要方法:

使用625个发生点和气候变量,采用了优化的MaxEnt模型.
该模型使用R中的ENMeval进行了改进,选择了最佳特征组合和规范化乘数.
使用AUC指标评估预测性表现,并分析了2050年代,2070年代和2090年代在共享社会经济途径 (SSPs) 上的分布变化.

主要成果:

经过改进的MaxEnt模型显示出强大的预测性能 (AUC = 0.904).
最冷月份的最低温度 (Bio6) 和温度季节性标准偏差 (Bio4) 是主要的气候驱动因素.
在SSP1-2.6下,息地保留仍然很高 (82-87%),而SSP5-8.5显示显著下降 (到2090年代下降至64.77%).

结论:

热变量极大地影响了 Lysimachia christinae 的分布.
气候变化对其息地稳定性构成重大威胁,特别是在高排放场景下.
专注于稳定或扩张息地的适应性保护策略对于Lysimachia christinae的长期生存至关重要.

关键词:

在 ENMevalval 中.这种植物名为 Lysimachia christinae.马克森特模型的模型.气候变化气候变化气候变化地理分布地理分布.

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