主要玉米昆虫害虫的未来范围变化表明它们对全球玉米生产的影响越来越大
Qiance Wei1,2,3, Xueyou Zhang1,2,3, Fang Yang4
1College of Agriculture and Biological Science, Dali University, Dali 671003, China.
Insects
|June 25, 2025
概括
未来的气候变化将扩大主要的玉米昆虫害虫的范围,增加全球息地适宜性. 缓解气候变化对于保护全球玉米生产免受这些威胁至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
背景情况:
- 玉米是一个关键的全球粮食主食,面临来自昆虫害虫的重大损失.
- 关于这些主要的玉米害虫在气候变化下的未来范围转移的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来影响玉米的主要昆虫害虫范围的变化.
- 评估气候变化场景 (SSP126,SSP585) 对害虫息地的影响.
- 确定战略管理的优先害虫和地区.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个统一的框架,包含24个多算法模型.
- 在乐观和悲观的气候变化场景下预测息地的适用性.
- 分析了范围的扩张,重叠和害虫动态的驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 预计将增加全球大多数害虫的息地适合性.
- 确定了主要由气候变化驱动的显著范围扩张.
- 在美国和墨西哥等关键地区观察到高范围的重叠.
- 突出了具有最大范围和转移的特定害虫.
结论:
- 气候变化是影响玉米的昆虫害虫范围扩大的主要驱动因素.
- 关键玉米地区的高范围重叠对产量构成重大威胁.
- 缓解气候变化对于减少未来对玉米的害虫影响至关重要.
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