评估中国Phloeosinus aubei Perris的息地适应性:基于MaxEnt的预测分析
Sabbir Ahmad1, Danping Xu1, Xinqi Deng1
1College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China.
Insects
|June 25, 2025
概括
气候变化可能会在中国显著扩大树皮甲虫Phloeosinus aubei的息地,特别是在西南部. 这种入侵物种对森林生态系统构成越来越大的威胁,需要适应性管理策略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 森林昆虫学 森林昆虫学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在改变全球物种分布.
- 侵袭性树皮甲虫对森林的健康和稳定构成重大威胁.
- 了解潜在的范围扩张对于保护工作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测在中国未来的气候情景下,Phloeosinus aubei的潜在分布.
- 确定影响P. aubei息地适宜性的关键气候因素.
- 评估P. aubei传播的风险,并为管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用MaxEnt算法进行物种分布建模.
- 整合发生数据,生物气候和地形变量.
- 根据代表性度路径 (RCP) 和共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 预测息地的适宜性.
主要成果:
- 年度降水量 (bio12) 和最寒冷月份的最低温度 (bio6) 是P. aubei分布的主要驱动因素.
- 预计到20世纪50年代,在SSP5-8.5.5下,P. aubei的高适合性区域将扩大82.29%.
- 模型验证显示了高预测准确度 (AUC = 0.92).
结论:
- 由于气候变化,Phloeosinus aubei可能会扩大其在中国的范围,特别是在西南地区.
- 气候变暖引起的降水变化是这种扩张的关键因素.
- 积极的,适应性的管理策略对于减轻这种侵入性树皮甲虫的生态影响至关重要.
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