预测一个重要的水果害虫Grapholita dimorpha Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) 的当前和未来息地分布,使用一个优化的MaxEnt模型
Li Huang1,2, Shichao Zuo1, Yiqi Huo1
1College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China.
Insects
|June 25, 2025
概括
主要的果树害虫Grapholita dimorpha,主要在东亚有合适的息地. 预计气候变化将使其范围向北扩大,增加害虫爆发风险.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
- 生物气候建模模型
背景情况:
- 石墨藻 (Grapholita dimorpha) 是一种重要的挖掘虫害虫害,影响梅,梨和果树,导致水果生产的大量经济损失.
- 人们对G. dimorpha的潜在分布和影响因素的了解仍然不足,这阻碍了有效的害虫防治策略.
研究的目的:
- 用一个优化的最大 (MaxEnt) 模型来预测Grapholita dimorpha的时空分布.
- 确定驱动G. dimorpha.分布的关键生物气候因素.
主要方法:
- 优化最大 (MaxEnt) 模型的模拟.
- 在当前和未来的气候条件下对G. dimorpha分布的时空预测.
- 确定影响害虫分布的关键生物气候变量.
主要成果:
- 在目前的条件下,适合G. dimorpha的息地覆盖东亚273.5×10^4平方公里,主要在中国,韩国和日本.
- 非常适合的息地集中在韩国和日本中部 (19.8 × 10^4 km^2).
- 未来的预测显示,适合地区增加了17.74%62.10%,向北转移,中国和日本的高度适合息地增加.
结论:
- 预测的分布,特别是高度适合的地区,表明G. dimorpha爆发的风险很高,需要优先监测和管理害虫.
- 最干燥的季度 (bio9) 的平均温度和最热的季度 (bio18) 的降水被确定为关键的生物气候驱动因素.
- 鉴定的生物气候变量为有针对性的害虫监测和管理策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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