在老年人癌症手术后,能够留在家中的预测工具
Julie Hallet1,2,3,4, Alyson L Mahar3,5, Wing C Chan3
1Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
JAMA surgery
|June 25, 2025
概括
一个新的STAYHOME模型预测了老年人在癌症手术后失去家庭独立的风险. 该工具通过在程序之前提供个性化风险估计来帮助共享决策.
科学领域:
- 老年瘤学 老年瘤学
- 手术成果研究的研究结果.
- 医疗服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 对于接受癌症手术的老年人来说,共享决策至关重要.
- 提供个性化风险估计的预测工具可以增强患者和提供者之间的讨论.
研究的目的:
- 开发和内部验证STAYHOME风险预测模型.
- 为了估计老年人失去在癌症手术后在家生活的能力的风险.
主要方法:
- 在加拿大安大略省 (2007-2019) 进行了以人口为基础的回顾性预后研究.
- 包括70岁以上接受癌症手术的成年人.
- 使用精细灰色模型,考虑竞争死亡风险;通过引导验证评估歧视和校准.
主要成果:
- 在STAYHOME模型中,使用了手术前的变量 (年龄,性别,虚弱等). 为了预测结果. 预测结果.
- 在6个月后达到0.76的AUC,在12个月后达到0.75.
- 在风险分位数中表现出良好的区分和校准,与观察到的风险差异最小.
结论:
- STAYHOME模型准确地预测了老年人在癌症手术后不留在家中的风险.
- 来自STAYHOME的个性化风险估计可以支持手术前咨询和共同决策.
- 该模型的良好性能表明它在老年癌症患者的临床实践中具有实用性.
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