时间间和风险选择中的模糊性偏好:使用漂移-扩散建模的大规模研究
Mingqian Guo1, Iris Ikink2,3,4, Karin Roelofs2,3
1Behavioural Science Institute, Radboud University, Thomas Van Aquinostraat 4, 6525GD, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. mingqian.guo@ru.nl.
Psychonomic bulletin & review
|June 25, 2025
概括
个人在决策中表现出对时间和概率模两可的持续厌恶. 这表明,模两可的偏好与不同类型的选择有关,甚至与不同的决策策略有关.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 现实世界的决策往往涉及奖励时间和概率的模糊性,与受控实验室设置不同.
- 了解对模两可的厌恶对于解释经济和心理选择至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查时间模两可的厌恶和概率模两可的厌恶之间的关系.
- 评估计算模型,包括漂移-扩散模型 (DDM),对于涉及模两可的选择.
- 为了确定模两可的偏好是否在跨时间和风险决策领域一致.
主要方法:
- 对一个大数据集 (N > 669) 的风险和时间间的选择进行了分析,其中含糊性不同.
- 应用漂移扩散模型 (DDM) 来评估选择行为.
- 属性智能和集成值计算模型的比较.
主要成果:
- 在对时间模两可和概率模两可的厌恶之间发现了显著的正相关性 (r = .28).
- 包含模糊性偏好的DDM在两个领域的表现明显优于没有的DDM.
- 时间模两可的厌恶是通过属性明智的方法最好地建模的,而概率模两可的厌恶是通过综合值方法最好地建模的.
结论:
- 模糊性偏好在时间和概率领域并不独立,表明跨领域的一致性.
- 对于模两可的决策策略可能因选择领域而有所不同 (属性智能与集成值智能).
- 这些发现支持使用具有模糊性参数的DDM来建模复杂的决策.
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