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在胆囊癌中术后生存的个性化预测:基于SEER数据和外部验证的nomogram

Yayue Liu^1,2,3,4,5, Kangwei Zhu^1,2,3,4,5, Xindi Tian^1,2,3,4,5

¹Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin 300060, China.

|June 26, 2025

概括

这项研究为胆囊癌 (GBC) 患者开发了一种经过验证的预后诺莫图,改善了生存预测. 辅助化疗的好处选择高风险的GBC患者,指导个性化治疗决策.

科学领域:

在瘤学瘤学.
手术瘤学手术瘤学
生物统计学生物统计学

背景情况:

胆囊癌 (GBC) 是一种罕见的,侵略性的恶性瘤,需要有效的预后工具.
优化术后治疗策略依赖于准确的生存预测.
当前的预后模型可能无法完全捕捉GBC中的生存细微差别.

研究的目的:

开发和验证一个预后名谱来估计1年,3年和5年的整体存活期 (OS) 在GBC患者.
探索辅助化疗在不同GBC患者亚组中的疗效.
为GBC管理提供个性化治疗决策的工具.

主要方法:

从SEER数据库 (2000-2020) 分析了1848名手术后GBC患者.
外部验证使用来自中国的108名GBC患者队列 (2010-2020年).
通过LASSO回归和考克斯分析进行预后因素识别;使用C指数,ROC曲线,校准和DCA进行名录验证.

主要成果:

诺米图表表现出强大的预测性能,具有高的C指数 (0.767培训,0.798内部,0.750外部验证).
时间依赖的ROC分析证实了在验证队伍中对1年,3年和5年的OS进行强有力的歧视.
辅助化疗显著改善了TNM阶段>IIB的患者的生存率,但不是早期疾病 (TNM ≤ IIB).

结论:

对于GBC患者来说,经过验证的预后野图显示出优异的区分和校准能力.
这些发现支持个性化辅助化疗决策,有利于选择高风险GBC患者.
这种名字图有助于临床医生优化胆囊癌的术后管理和治疗策略.

关键词:

辅助性化疗是一种辅助性化疗.胆道癌淋巴切除术淋巴切除术胆囊癌是一种胆囊癌.这个名字是名ogramogram.

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