人口老龄化和缺乏卫生治理:减轻因农村卫生设施不安全造成的死亡人数的全球挑战
Zixuan Wang1,2,3, Pengyu Li1,2,3, Wenkai Li4
1State Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
Environment & health (Washington, D.C.)
|June 26, 2025
概括
据估计,到2030年,农村地区不安全的卫生设施将导致2.43万人的死亡,不成比例地影响非洲和东南亚. 改善农村卫生治理和基础设施对于减轻这些风险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 全球城市化往往忽视了农村的健康风险,特别是农村不安全卫生设施造成的死亡 (DAUSR).
- 现有的DAUSR研究缺乏全面的全球评估框架和规模.
- 人口因素,疾病死亡率和卫生条件显著影响DAUSRs.
研究的目的:
- 估计从2000年到2030年的全球DAUSR.
- 分析DAUSRs的影响因素,包括人口动态,卫生,年龄结构和疾病死亡率.
- 为全球农村环境和公共卫生政策提供基于证据的建议.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球疾病负担 (GBD) 和世界卫生组织 (WHO) 的数据.
- 使用可比风险评估,贝叶斯年龄 (时期) 模型和自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型.
- 应用了分解方法来评估DAUSR及其驱动器的变化.
主要成果:
- 尽管有所改善,但到2030年,12.2%的农村人口将缺乏卫生所.
- 由于农村的卫生设施不安全,估计有243,000人死亡 (CI:147,000-441,000).
- 老龄化和生育率下降被确定为DAUSR的主要驱动因素,非洲和东南亚的风险更高.
结论:
- 加强农村卫生治理对于应对人口变化和减少DAUSR至关重要.
- 建议采取全面措施,包括改善医疗设施和卫生基础设施.
- 专注于老年人和儿童等弱势群体对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
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