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一种从意见和新闻事件中推断因果关系的方法论方法,适用于气候变化
Juan Marten1, Fernando Delbianco2,3, Fernando Tohme2,3
1Departamento de Ciencias e Ingeniería de la Computación, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Bahía Blanca, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
PeerJ. Computer science
|June 26, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的方法,用于在线讨论中使用因果推理找到因果关系. 它分析了社交媒体的情绪和话题,如气候变化,如何响应事件和有影响力的人物.
科学领域:
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 因果推理的原因推理.
- 社交媒体分析.
背景情况:
- 社交媒体平台促进了全球思想交流.
- 了解在线话语中的因果关系对于分析公众论和事件影响至关重要.
- 现有的方法可能无法充分捕捉在线因果关系的动态和复杂性质.
研究的目的:
- 提出和验证一种新的方法来检测在线话语中的因果关系.
- 整合多种因果推理技术来分析情绪和话题演变.
- 将该方法应用于气候变化话语,检查公众情绪,主题和现实世界的事件之间的联系.
主要方法:
- 整合了五种因果检测方法:直接LiNGAM,PC,PCMCI,VAR和随机因果关系.
- 分析包含诸如话题,情绪和现实世界的事件等变量数据集的分析.
- 应用于气候变化数据,将推特信息与气候灾害数据结合起来.
主要成果:
- 该方法成功地确定了在线话语中的因果关系.
- 获得了关于公众情绪,特定主题 (例如气候变化讨论) 和自然灾害之间的因果关系的见解.
- 展示了现实世界的事件和有影响力的人物对社交媒体讨论的影响.
结论:
- 拟议的方法提供了一个强大的框架来分析在线社交媒体中复杂的因果关系问题.
- 这种方法提高了我们对外界事件和关键参与者如何塑造公众论和话语的理解.
- 这些发现为进一步研究在线因果关系及其社会影响提供了基础.
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