中国的下肢外周动脉疾病流行:当前趋势和未来预测
Jianxing Yu1, Yuhan Zhang2, Qingqing Zhang3
1School of Medicine, Linyi University, Linyi, Shandong, China.
Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine
|June 26, 2025
概括
中国的外周动脉疾病 (PAD) 负担显著增加,预计到2046年,新的病例将增加. 早期发现和管理PAD风险因素对于心血管健康至关重要.
科学领域:
- 心血管流行病学心血管流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 周围动脉疾病 (PAD) 是系统性心血管健康的关键指标.
- PAD通常呈现无症状,导致诊断和管理延迟.
- 了解中国的PAD疾病负担对于公共卫生倡议至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计从1990年到2021年,中国的PAD疾病负担.
- 预测到2046年的PAD发病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据库的发病率和DALYs的数据.
- 用人加入点回归分析从1990年到2021年的趋势.
- 应用贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (APC) 建模用于2046年的趋势预测.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,中国记录了245万个新的PAD病例,女性占多数.
- 虽然总体发病率增加,但年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 在女性下降,但在男性上升.
- 预计到2046年,PAD病例将增加到404万,ASIR稳定.
结论:
- 中国的PAD疾病负担已大幅增加,预计将继续增长.
- 减少可改变的风险因素,如吸烟和代谢疾病是必不可少的.
- 迫切需要加强PAD预防,管理策略和专门中心.
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