估计未诊断的艾滋病毒感染的年龄组在日本:一个延长的年龄依赖的逆向计算
Seiko Fujiwara1, Hiroshi Nishiura1, Takuma Shirasaka2
1Kyoto University, School of Public Health, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|June 26, 2025
概括
改善艾滋病毒检测需要了解未被诊断的病例的年龄. 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 有效的艾滋病毒/艾滋病检测和治疗策略取决于准确估计未诊断的感染.
- 针对特定年龄的数据对于理解艾滋病毒流行病学和定制公共卫生干预措施至关重要.
- 以前的模型可能无法完全考虑HIV潜伏和诊断中的年龄和时间依赖因素.
研究的目的:
- 根据日本的年龄组估计未诊断的艾滋病毒感染人数和比例.
- 分析不同年龄人口的HIV诊断率的趋势.
- 确定特定年龄组中诊断艾滋病毒的挑战.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种扩展的逆向计算模型,包括年龄和感染以来的时间.
- 建模了艾滋病病例和艾滋病毒诊断的数据生成过程.
- 根据年龄和时间,估计新的艾滋病毒感染率和年度诊断率.
主要成果:
- 在2022年,在20s-50s+年龄组中,诊断比例很高 (90-93%).
- 在40多岁的个人中,每年诊断率在2015-2019年和2020-2022年之间略有下降.
- 在2020-2022年,50岁以上的个体的诊断率很低 (13.6%),这表明诊断挑战.
结论:
- 确诊的艾滋病毒感染的比例很大,但对于老年人群来说,仍然存在挑战.
- 40岁及以上的个体在艾滋病毒诊断方面存在困难.
- 需要为老年人群提供定制和可访问的诊断机会.
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