模拟营养冲击对印度结核病的影响
Rebecca A Clark1, Roel Bakker2,3, Peter Alexander4
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Rebecca.Clark@lshtm.ac.uk.
影响营养的环境冲击可能会显著增加结核病 (TB) 发病率和死亡率. 营养不良加剧了结核病,突出了需要考虑营养影响的危机应对结核病控制.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 营养科学 营养科学
背景情况:
- 营养不良是结核病 (TB) 发病率和治疗结果差的关键驱动因素.
- 环境和社会变化可能会破坏获得足够营养的机会,可能会影响结核病.
- 以前的分析可能低估了结核病负担,因为没有考虑营养冲击.
研究的目的:
- 模拟营养冲击对印度结核病发病率和死亡率的影响.
- 预测供应链中断和价格上对人口BMI和结核病率的影响.
- 将营养冲击情景下的结核病结果与持续的食品系统趋势进行比较.
主要方法:
- 为印度开发了一种结核病传播模型,其中包含了体质指数 (BMI) 层.
- 使用特定国家结核病估计值对模型进行校准.
- 利用LandSyMM食品系统模型来预测营养冲击场景 (例如,价格上) 以及它们对BMI分布的影响.
主要成果:
- 最坏的情况下,持续的价格上预计到2035年结核病发病率将增加5.0%,结核病死亡率将增加4.9%.
- 这种情况预计,在2022年至2035年期间,印度的结核病例将增加110万例,结核病死亡人数将达到177,500人.
- 营养冲击明显改变了人口的BMI分布,影响了结核病疾病负担.
结论:
- 影响营养状况的外部冲击可以显著改变结核病的负担.
- 如果营养后果没有明确建模,危机对结核病的影响可能会被低估.
- 在危机期间,整合营养影响评估对于全面的结核病控制战略至关重要.
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