使用非静态极端值模型量化孟加拉国两个主要城市的极端降雨情况
Asim K Dey1, Mohammad Shaha A Patwary2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, 1108 Memorial Circle, Lubbock, 79409 Texas USA.
概括
孟加拉国因气候变化而面临极端降雨和洪水. 这项研究使用了一个非静止的通用极值 (GEV) 模型与温度数据来更好地预测严重的季风降雨,在Chattogram中发现了更高的风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 孟加拉国非常容易受到气候变化的影响,特别是极端的季风降雨导致洪水和山体滑坡.
- 现有的模型往往无法捕捉到极端降雨事件的动态和季节性.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个非静止的通用极值 (GEV) 建模框架,将大气温度作为共变量.
- 分析孟加拉国达卡和查托格拉姆的极端降雨事件,考虑季节性和动态特征.
- 量化极端降雨预测中的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 利用了达卡 (1990-2015) 和Chattogram (1999-2015) 的每日降雨和温度数据.
- 采用了一个非静止的GEV模型,将大气干泡温度作为共变量.
- 选择了使用Akaike信息标准 (AIC),贝叶斯信息标准 (BIC) 和适度测试的最佳模型.
- 通过三角形方法和参数启动程序量化预测不确定性.
主要成果:
- 与达卡相比,查托格拉姆的极端降雨事件的可能性更高.
- 在Chattogram中,回报水平预测和概率表明风险更大.
- 诊断评估证实了该模型在捕捉每月最大季风降雨变化的有效性.
结论:
- 具有温度共变量的非静止GEV模型为孟加拉国洪水风险管理和城市规划提供了宝贵的见解.
- 该研究通过结合温度效应和量化预测不确定性来解决现有方法的局限性.
- 未来的研究将侧重于时空空间降雨变化和用于降雨分布建模的先进机器学习.
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