估计埃塞俄比亚吉迪奥地区的儿童结核病发病率和报告不足:贝叶斯隐藏的马尔科夫模型
Solomon Hailemariam Tesfaye1, Tsion Mulat Tebeje1, Daneil Sisay1
1School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia.
IJID regions
|June 27, 2025
概括
埃塞俄比亚农村地区儿童结核病 (TB) 发病率在2018年至2023年期间上升. 报告不足是显著的,这表明急需改进结核病监测和诊断.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 儿童结核病 (TB) 构成了重大的公共卫生挑战,特别是在资源有限的环境中.
- 准确估计结核病发病率和病例检测率对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
- 农村地区在结核病监测方面经常面临独特的挑战,原因是医疗保健服务的获取有限.
研究的目的:
- 估计埃塞俄比亚农村儿童结核病 (TB) 的发病率.
- 量化报告不足的儿童结核病病例.
- 评估儿童结核病发病率和病例检测在特定时期的趋势.
主要方法:
- 采用了贝叶斯隐藏的马尔科夫模型,结合了时空随机效应.
- 分析使用了埃塞俄比亚农村地区的结核病通知数据,涵盖2018年至2023年的时间.
- 共同变量包括空间依赖和艾滋病毒感染;诊断服务可用性告知病例检测.
主要成果:
- 在Gedeo区的儿童结核病发病率在2018年至2023年之间从每10万人口中的141例增加到157例.
- 估计的病例检测率很低,从每10万例的56例上升到62例,这表明报告不足.
- 空间分析显示,结核病通知预测了邻近地区的发病率,突出了疾病传播模式.
结论:
- 儿童结核病发病率估计与研究区域报告病例之间存在显著差异.
- 研究结果强调,迫切需要加强埃塞俄比亚农村地区的结核病监测系统.
- 加强诊断能力和报告机制对于准确的结核病负担评估和控制至关重要.
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