气候引起的河流流量变化和长岛海峡的气负载变化
Melissa S Duvall1, James D Hagy2
1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Long Island Sound Office, 888 Washington Blvd., Stamford, CT 06904, USA.
The Science of the total environment
|June 27, 2025
概括
气候变化将改变河流流动和营养物质负载,影响河口水质. 预计的轮班可能会导致某些地区的条件改善,但在其他地区会恶化肥胖和缺氧,需要适应性管理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 气候引起的河流流量和营养物质负载的变化显著影响河口水质.
- 像长岛海峡 (LIS) 这样的河口容易受到水质变化的影响,原因是水文模式的变化.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种经验方法来估计气候驱动的流量大小,时间和持续时间的变化.
- 在气候变化场景下,预测未来的溪流流和营养物质加载到长岛湾.
- 评估这些变化对河口水质的潜在影响,包括缩和缺氧.
主要方法:
- 从全球气候模型中利用了统计学上缩小的预测.
- 采用了一般化添加模型 (GAMs) 与降水和潜在的蒸发透气来估计流量.
- 分析了康涅狄格河流域和其他影响LIS的近海流域的溪流流和总 (TN) 负载的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计流量在2月至5月和7月至9月增加,在10月至1月下降.
- 康涅狄格河流域的年流量减少了 (-12.6%),导致TN负载估计减少了10%.
- 未来的TN河流对LIS的负载预计总体较低,但具有区域差异,可能导致东部LIS的寡质化和西部LIS的轻质化.
结论:
- 气候变化将改变水文制度和对河口的营养投入,需要适应性水质管理.
- 气候模型预测因素的选择 (例如,蒸发与温度) 显著影响流量预测.
- 预计营养负载的变化在西部LIS带来局部缩和缺氧的风险,需要有针对性的缓解策略.
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