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在流行病期间,登革热在里约热内卢蔓延的时空空间动态
Bárbara Campos Silva Valente1, Ana Paula Razal Dalvi2, Guilherme Loureiro Werneck2,3
1Joaquim Venâncio Polytechnic School of Health, https://ror.org/04jhswv08Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Epidemiology and infection
|June 30, 2025
概括
里约热内卢的登革热流行病显示出不断演变的空间模式,从北部/中部地区转移到西部,然后遍布整个城市. 了解这些时间变化是有效控制登革热的关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 登革热是一种主要的城市树状病毒,在全球范围内引起经常性流行病.
- 自20世纪80年代以来,巴西里约热内卢经历了大量登革热疫情.
研究的目的:
- 分析里约热内卢登革热传播的时空动态.
- 在流行年 (2002,2008,2011,2012,2013,2024年) 中确定登革热发病率模式的变化.
主要方法:
- 生态研究利用聚合,社区级登革热病例数据.
- 使用本地经验贝叶斯法来估计发病率.
- 利用空间自相关性指标和每月的地理轨迹分析.
主要成果:
- 登革热发病率集群随着时间的推移而变化:北部/中部地区 (2002年,2008年),西部地区 (2011-2013年) 和广泛的城市分布 (2024年).
- 2024年,在中部和西部地区观察到高发病率集群.
- 在疫情高峰期间,病例的地理中心从西向北移动.
结论:
- 里约热内卢的登革热传播异质,并且在空间和时间上有所变化.
- 时空流行病学分析对于制定有针对性的登革热控制战略至关重要.
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