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结合的多变量分析揭示了沿海海洋生态系统中不同的气候和时间和空间变化的当地驱动因素

Tyler R Abruzzo¹, Michael G Frisk¹, Liam Butler¹

¹School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University Stony Brook New York USA.

Ecology and evolution

|June 30, 2025

概括

佩科尼河口的生态系统变化是由大西洋多年周期振荡等气候模式驱动的,而不是局部因素. 持续的监测可以预测这些气候引起的变化,以有效地保护和管理.

科学领域:

生态监测和数据分析.
河口生态系统的动态
气候变化对水生生态系统的影响

背景情况:

长期监测数据对于理解生态系统变化和为保护提供信息至关重要.
生态系统的变化可以掩盖潜在的趋势,需要强大的分析方法.
佩科尼河口的移动无脊椎动物和鱼类组合是生态系统健康的关键指标.

研究的目的:

为了确定在Peconic河口移动无脊椎动物和鱼类组合变化的时间和空间驱动因素.
用多变量统计方法分析长期监测数据 (1987-2020年).
区分气候驱动因素和影响河口社区结构的当地因素.

主要方法:

利用来自76个地点的33年拖网调查数据集.
应用多变量统计工具:K-means集群分析,冗余分析和多尺度排序.
综合区域气候指数 (大西洋多年周期振荡,北大西洋振荡) 和当地环境数据 (盐度,深度,DO,透明度).

主要成果:

对于河口组合,已经确定了明显的时间和空间驱动因素.
突如其来的社区转变,包括1999-2000年的政权转变,与区域气候振荡 (AMO,NAO) 有关.
空间上不同的地区 (东部,沿海,离岸) 具有当地条件的特征,但对气候驱动因素的反应类似;底部温度和叶绿素a不是重要的驱动因素.

结论:

气候因素,特别是AMO和NAO,是Peconic河口十年级生态系统变化的主要驱动因素.
当地条件定义了不同的息地,但气候决定了社区的总体趋势.
持续监测可以预测气候引起的变化,支持全系统的保护和管理策略.

关键词:

地方和气候驱动因素.监控监控监控监控监控监控进行多变量分析.尼克顿尼克顿 (necton) 是一个时间和空间的社区结构结构.

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