静止人口动力学揭示了全球衰老的结构类型学:在195个国家采用二元模型方法
James R Carey1,2, Arni S R Srinivasa Rao3,4
1Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis 95616, USA.
Research square
|June 30, 2025
概括
全球人口老龄化被分为五个阶段,使用一种新的二进制人口对框架. 大多数国家到2100年将达到结构性的静止,尽管有些国家面临着低生育率和老龄化的"人口旋".
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 全球人口老龄化是一个复杂的现象,具有不同的轨迹.
- 现有的模型往往无法捕捉人口老龄化的动态和累积性质.
- 了解年龄分布的结构变化对于决策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出全球人口老龄化的统一结构类型学.
- 为分析衰老引入一种新的二进制人口对框架.
- 根据其人口继承情况对国家进行分类,并确定不同的老龄化模式.
主要方法:
- 利用静止人口身份来将国家人口与其静止对应物结合起来.
- 年龄结构,人口势头和寿命增长的量化偏差.
- 开发了新的比较指标:寿命平价比率,静止差距,终端依赖比率,生存抵消和净结构衰老.
主要成果:
- 将195个国家分为五个阶段的人口继承模型 (青年主导到年龄主导).
- 观察到到2100年的结构静止的广泛趋同,转向了老年人形状.
- 介绍了 介绍了
- 人口风暴的人口风暴
- 描述患有慢性低生育率和持续结构衰老的人口.
结论:
- 人口老龄化是一个动态的,累积的过程,而不是一个固定的老化轨迹.
- 二元人口对框架为老龄化提供了一个新的视角,即在不断变化的寿命中重新定位.
- 这种重新概念化改变了我们对现代全球人口老龄化的理解.
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