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宏观进化能否影响当代的灭绝风险?
Sarah-Sophie Weil1,2,3, Sébastien Lavergne2, Florian C Boucher2
1Department of Biodiversity, Macroecology & Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
Ecology letters
|June 30, 2025
概括
宏观进化速率可以帮助预测物种灭绝风险. 过去的灭绝率是可靠的预测指标,但多元化和利基进化率需要更多的研究来保护应用.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 全球变化将物种推向灭绝,需要早期发现受威胁的物种.
- 由于对物种分布,种群大小和趋势的数据限制,评估灭绝风险具有挑战性.
- 像范围大小这样的生态特征并不总是灭绝风险的直接指标.
研究的目的:
- 评估将宏观进化指标与当代灭绝风险联系在一起的假设.
- 调查宏观进化速率是否可以作为促进灭绝的特征的代理.
- 确定宏观进化指数的可靠性,以识别面临风险的物种.
主要方法:
- 审查目前对宏观进化指标和灭绝风险的理解.
- 分析过去的灭绝率与当代灭绝风险之间的关系.
- 检查与灭绝风险相关的多元化和利基发展率的假设.
主要成果:
- 过去的灭绝率可靠地预测了由于遗传特征而导致的当前灭绝风险.
- 当前灭绝风险与多元化/利基化演变率之间的关系取决于分类和条件.
- 目前的理解不足以充分利用多元化和利基发展率作为灭绝风险预测因素.
结论:
- 宏观进化指标显示出识别固有的灭绝风险的潜力.
- 过去的灭绝率是有价值的预测指标,补充了基于特征的方法.
- 需要进一步的研究来验证对不同种类和环境中的多样化和利基进化速率的假设.
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