使用需求系统模型,估计南非部分食品和饮料的价格和支出弹性
Chengetai Dare1, Maxime Bercholz2, Micheal Kofi Boachie1
1SAMRC/WITS Centre for Health Economics and Decision Science - PRICELESS SA, Wits School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Journal of public health research
|July 1, 2025
概括
南非家庭对含糖饮料和其他食品的价格敏感度不同. 调查结果表明,有可能扩大健康促进税 (HPL),以影响消费并产生收入.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 消费者行为分析 消费者行为分析
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 南非于2018年对含糖饮料征收健康促进税 (HPL).
- 关于包装前方标签的条例草案 目标食品含量高的糖,或和脂肪.
- 关于这些产品需求的价格弹性数据有限,这阻碍了政策影响评估.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计南非选择食品和饮料产品需求的支出和价格弹性.
- 分析不同社会经济地位 (SES) 家庭的需求弹性.
- 为潜在的政策决定提供有关健康促进税和食品标签的信息.
主要方法:
- 采用了修改后的精确亲属性石指数需求系统模型.
- 从2016年1月到2019年3月的雇佣家庭购买数据.
- 低和高SES家庭的差异化分析.
主要成果:
- 自身价格弹性范围从-1.05 (包装的水果,蔬菜,坚果和种子) 到-1.91 (低糖乳制品饮料).
- 对于这些类别,10%的价格上可能会使需求减少10.5%19.1%.
- 低SES家庭表现出更大的价格敏感性;确定了产品之间的替代性和互补性关系.
结论:
- 政府可能有能力增加或扩大健康促进税 (HPL).
- 这种扩张可能会进一步阻碍目标产品的消费,并增加政府收入.
- 总体影响需要考虑供给侧反应,这在本研究中没有分析.
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